Looking for "Out of the Box" Thinkers

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

Hello All,
This is Kody, aka Sp3cial K. I have recently joined MRExcel in hopes to find methods to creating passages through excel to better my thoughts that run through my head. Some may think I'm crazy, but I truly believe that with the thoughts of others and myself, that a simple game can be cracked, leading us all to making a lot of money.

As I look at life, I know, just as any other smart person knows, life revolves around numeric patterns. And what I have seen by joining this site is that there are a lot of smart people out there. So, What I have decided to do is to write this as an invite to those interested. The game I play is Keno, it can be found in most states that carry lotto, not just at casinos. Keno is a numbers game where you pick 1-10 numbers of 80. There are 20 numbers drawn and if your numbers match, then you win depending on what sequence of numbers you choose.

Now, I have played every sequence there is. Here in Missouri, The winnings are as follows:

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What I have found is your best chances to win, are simply picking two numbers. If two out of 20 numbers hit, you win 10/1 odds. So, what I am trying to find, is a formula in excel that we can use, to configure the next drawings to show us at least 2 numbers that will come in. This sounds easy I'm sure, I've been racking my brain trying different methods, count, sum, and even predict (which has slipped my mind of the formula name, but you take certain numbers in a row and it tells you what the next number should be) Anyway, Billions of people play the lottery, everyone is looking for that edge to make more money aside from their real-life job. I am looking for others interested in trying to devise a pattern or formula in excel that we can figure out the next drawing up to three drawings ahead. If interested, reply to this post, share the post and maybe with more minds then 1, we can find a solution.

Kody

 

[oldbrewer]

my earliier response has been backed up by clever people - special k - run a simulator of the game and stake what you want per game - you can thus play for years in a few seconds - you will win very close to the theoretical win rate, maybe a little more, maybe a little less

playing roulette 10 numbers are 12,34, 23, 15, 34, 3, 2, 19, 27,32

are you going to play odd or even, hi or low, red or black, or bet on 34

the next spin of the wheel is a random event, the wheel has no memory

you are merely seeing short term patterns in a very long term system

seeing and reacting to such a pattern is no different to having a wild guess

what about COLD numbers, they must start occurring to balance out the laws of randomness, why not bet on them ????

 

[xenou]

I corrected myself.. it's hit 70% in the draws I'm looking at..

What draws are you looking at?


@old_brewer: I think we also could build a system on LUKEWARM numbers too! They are the sleeping beauties of keno, as far as we know ...

 

[pleeseemailme]

I know from my experience with statistics and random sampling, that a sample of 30 is in no way sufficient to produce meaningful results. I know one college professor who taught that anything under a million samples isn't worth analyzing.

 

[shg]

For any four selected numbers, what's the probability that 1, 2, 3 or 4 of them are present in a draw of 10, 20, or 30 numbers?

[Table="width:, class:grid"][tr][td] [/td][td]

A​

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B​

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C​

[/td][td]

D​

[/td][td]

E​

[/td][td]

F​

[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]

1​

[/td][td]

Drawn\Exact​

[/td][td]

1​

[/td][td]

2​

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3​

[/td][td]

4​

[/td][td]

Total​

[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]

2​

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10​

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34.61%​

[/td][td]

6.87%​

[/td][td]

0.53%​

[/td][td]

0.01%​

[/td][td]

42.03%​

[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]

3​

[/td][td]

20​

[/td][td]

43.27%​

[/td][td]

21.26%​

[/td][td]

4.32%​

[/td][td]

0.31%​

[/td][td]

69.17%​

[/td][/tr]

[tr][td]

4​

[/td][td]

30​

[/td][td]

37.18%​

[/td][td]

33.69%​

[/td][td]

12.84%​

[/td][td]

1.73%​

[/td][td]

85.44%​

[/td][/tr]
[/table]

The formula in B2 and copied right and down is

=HYPGEOMDIST(B$1, $A2, 4, 80)

 

[xenou]

Thanks, shg. That's nice.

I suspect the disconnect between seeing "70%" results and the actual odds comes by cherry-picking the samples. It is likely that you could find a number that was drawn 70% of the time in some interval, looking over past games. But that's a world of difference between predicting that result ahead of time. When you look at historical draws, the results are already known and all those numbers have a 100% chance of having been drawn in those lotteries. That's not at all the same as saying what the probability is for future lotteries. One would have to look at more samples, and in fact to be rigorous the sample should also be selected at random.

 

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

It's the Missouri Club Keno, was drawings 1136353-1136383 I believe..

As of now I am starting at draw 1136000. I have put 20 blank spots in for to 20 numbers to draw per each draw, next to it I have done the countif formula to count each number has it has been drawn. and beside that I have done a sum formula to sum up how many time a number falls with-in 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 etc to 77-80.

I'[m wondering if by going through and seeing if there is a pattern in sets of four..

 

[shg]

There probably is. Good luck.

 

[oldbrewer]

shg 37.18 ???????????????????????????

 

[oldbrewer]

or 43.27 ????????????????

 

[Sp3cial_k_1975]

This could be useful information.. By chance.. I took draws 1136000-1136009 (10 draws)

Of those 10 draws
1-4 hit 7 times (70%) 41-44 hit 13 times (130%)
5-8 hit 7 times (70%) 45-48 hit 8 times (80%)
9-12 hit 12 times (120%) 49-52 hit 9 times (90%)
13-16 hit 8 times (80%) 53-56 hit 10 times (100%)
17-20 hit 11 times (110%) 57-60 hit 11 times (110%)
21-24 hit 9 times (90%) 61-64 hit 13 times (130%)
25-28 hit 11 times (110%) 65-68 hit 14 times (140%)
29-32 hit 9 times (90%) 69-72 hit 9 times (90%)
33-36 hit 9 times (90%) 73-76 hit 7 times (70%)
37-40 hit 15 times (150%) 77-80 hit 8 times (80%)

So this tells me that picking numbers between 37-40 and 65-68 should be a good hit for next draw...

But then I wonder, if I reduce it down even more, same formulas, but only 2 numbers would it pin point it better? or by going up to 5 numbers would that pinpoint it better?