World Cup Prediction Competition

[Domski]

Has anyone let Excel decide on the results by using RANDBETWEEN(0,?)?
I'm thinking perhaps the machine would be better at predicting scores than I am........

You're right, it works

Book4
	A	B	C	D
1	Scotland	0	5	England
Sheet1

Dom

 

[PaddyD]

For the analysts here, JP Morgan's quant approach to the predictions might be interesting:

http://www.e696.com/data/0000002A0518J3.pdf

...and for the wannabe-quants, might prove a painless introduction.

England are going to win, apparently, which probably explains the recent global financial crisis.

 

[xld]

You're right, it works
Dom

When I did that, it knocked out France, Argentine, Netherlands, Germany and Brazil in the group stages. Brazil got 0 points. England got through with Slovenia, which sounds about right.

 

[xld]

For the analysts here, JP Morgan's quant approach to the predictions might be interesting:

http://www.e696.com/data/0000002A0518J3.pdf

...and for the wannabe-quants, might prove a painless introduction.

England are going to win, apparently, which probably explains the recent global financial crisis.

Is that the same model that they used to calculate the risk on their derivaties?

 

[barry houdini]

Anybody who hasn't entered but still intends to.....you have another 24 hours - I will attempt to post all the predictions back here - if you want you can update the scores and see how you are doing.....

Good Luck

 

[Colin Legg]

Is that the same model that they used to calculate the risk on their derivaties?

Given that it was especially written for the world cup, I'd say that it's a newer, upgraded version.

 

[xld]

Newer, upgraded maybe, but they say in ther paper

• Quant Models are mathematical methods built to efficiently screen and
identify stocks.
• They are based on information and data (analyst upgrades, valuation
metrics etc) proven to help predict stock returns.
• Having developed a rather successful Quant Model over the years, we
intend to introduce it to our readers and also use its methodology to
apply it to a fruitful field for statistics: Football and the World Cup.

That suggests to me that it is their old risk model adapted, and that was a proven success wasn't it.

 

[bertie]

e-mail sent

Scotland is now officialy participating in the World Cup.

Bertie

 

[Colin Legg]

Newer, upgraded maybe, but they say in ther paper
...... and that was a proven success wasn't it.

Yep, I totally agree with you!

 

[barry houdini]

Thanks Bertie, Do you think you have as much chance as "Ally's Army"? [showing my age now]