Statistics Problem

pgc, i agree with your solution. Combinations are def the way to go, i was trying for a while to get to these results. While in excel i created a simulation of the problem and after enough iterations the solutions should converge.

I hope you try my code, all you need is to
-enter ABCDEABCDABCD in A1 through A13
-enter VBA code into a module and launch
-watch for xmas lights

fun challenge, good day and until the next one
 

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A few comments about the second problem...

1. I agree with the 9.9% answer (540/1716)^2

2. Pairing the matches is interesting. I originally read the second part of the problem to mean that. for example, Team A's Males are assigned to a single group and no other Male team is transferred intact AND Team A's Females are assigned to a single group and no other Female team's members are reassigned to the same group. That is, a full original team is transferred intact while all others are split.

Let
M6 = Male group of 6 members
M7 = Male group of 7 members
F6 = Female group of 6 members
F7 = Female group of 7 members

Individually, we have the following
Team of 6 Team of 7
A 27 108
B 27 108
C 27 108
D 27 108
Total 108 432

as noted by others. A team is 4 times more likely to transfer intact to the group of 7 than the group of 6.

There are 291,600 (540^2) total intact teams, broken down as

M6F6 = 729 x 4 = 2916
M6F7 = 2916 x 4 = 11664
M7F6 = 2916 x 4 = 11664
M7F7 = 11664 x 4 = 46656

Total matched pairs (only a single original team have both M anf F members transfer intact). = 72900

Total non-matched pairs (only one team each transfers, but not from the same original grouping, e.g. A males and C females) = 218700

M6F6 = 2187 x 4 = 8748
M6F7 = 8748 x 4 = 34992
M7F6 = 8748 x 4 = 34992
M7F7 = 34992 x 4 = 139968

Following probability rules of independent events, note that combined M and F transfers are 16x more likely to transfer to the team of 7 rather than to the team of 6.

Looking at the combinations, it is easy to see, but my first intuition would have been a much smaller difference. Perhaps someone can devise a parlor trick to take advantage of this fact.
:-D
 

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