Chance of outcome....

[motilulla]

Using Excel 2010

Hello experts, today I have a question about chance of outcome “black in %” after losing in n times (for example 5 times continuously) bet on red, within 36 amount of times betting.

I do not have any idea, please guide with an example. Thank you all in advance.

Regards,
Moti

 

[Cubist]

You're conflating 2 different scenarios into one when they're fundamentally different. They differ in the concept of independent events. When the events are independent like roulette, the prior outcomes are independent of the next outcome. You can give me 1 billion rows of historical data, the probability of the next outcome doesn't change.

On the other hand, when discussing sport, some atheletes players are better at the sport than others, their skills improved with training, they might be in a better mood, more energized, playing at home base ect... There are endless number of factors that would indicate a player will be more likely or less likely to win the next game. The outcome of the next game is dependent on these factors and can change overtime.

That is to say these are 2 different things. Sport forecasting is very volatile. Looking at the historical win often does not indicate future wins.

Hope this clears it up.

 

[motilulla]

Cubist, thanks for the explain in detail the differences so I am clear that there is no probability can be calculated of outcome even having historical data or neither in the row consecutive win/loss happen.

May be I will think over and will try find some more examples.

Kind Regards,
Moti

 

[Cubist]

In layman's terms, you can only guess what's the probability of the next outcome given the historical data up to a certain level of confidence. So a probability distribution of what the actual probability of winning. A common approach is Bayesian Probability. The framework in a nutshell:

1. Prior Probability: Begin with initial beliefs about outcome probabilities based on historical data.
2. Likelihood Function: Evaluate how well the model explains new data.
3. Bayesian Update: Combine prior beliefs with new evidence to update probabilities using Bayes' theorem.
4. Prediction and Inference: Use updated probabilities to make predictions about future outcomes.
5. Iterative Process: Continuously update beliefs as new data becomes available.
6. Uncertainty Quantification: Bayesian methods provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty in predictions.

I don't know your background so this might be too much. Hope this helps.
PS: The calculation Stephen provided is formally known as Geometric distribution.

 

[motilulla]

In layman's terms, you can only guess what's the probability of the next outcome given the historical data up to a certain level of confidence. So a probability distribution of what the actual probability of winning. A common approach is Bayesian Probability. The framework in a nutshell:

1. Prior Probability: Begin with initial beliefs about outcome probabilities based on historical data.
2. Likelihood Function: Evaluate how well the model explains new data.
3. Bayesian Update: Combine prior beliefs with new evidence to update probabilities using Bayes' theorem.
4. Prediction and Inference: Use updated probabilities to make predictions about future outcomes.
5. Iterative Process: Continuously update beliefs as new data becomes available.
6. Uncertainty Quantification: Bayesian methods provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty in predictions.

I don't know your background so this might be too much. Hope this helps.
PS: The calculation Stephen provided is formally known as Geometric distribution.

Cubist, I am not so intelligent to understand much about formulas. My humble is request to you can you provide with some example in the excel worksheet using these complicate formulas. I also understand it is difficult and must be time consuming please when you can make it possible so I can improve my knowledge about probability of chances. Good Luck!

Kind Regards,
Moti

 

[Cubist]

It is a time-consuming process and requires continuous updates. Even if I can give you a template, you mostly won't be able to update the model yourself. I would recommend starting with theory and doing it yourself. If you have questions, other forums are more suited than Excel. Good luck.

 

[motilulla]

Cubist, I appreciate you for your time. I will try to myself can you provide other forums link where I can learn…also will appreciate if you have answer similar question give me link so I can go through. Have a nice weekend. Good Luck!

My Best Regards,
Moti