Any probability experts out there?

[JenniferMurphy]

Can anyone help me with the formula for calculating the expected probability of a team winning a series of games given their history of winning home games and away games and depending on whether they have home court advantage or not?

Here's a sample minisheet. I'd like a formula for the last 2 columns. Col F would be the probability of winning a 7 game series with home court advantage. Col G would be the odds of winning that series without home court advantage.

Odds.xlsm
	C	D	E	F	G
4	Home Win%	Away Win%	Series	P(win) with	P(win) without
5	50%	50%	2-2-1-1-1
6	60%	40%	2-2-1-1-1
7	70%	30%	2-2-1-1-1
8	80%	20%	2-2-1-1-1
Sheet1

I think I know how to calculate the odds of a series of N games with fixed odds using the binomial distribution, but this is more complicated. If the 7 game series is 2-2-1-1-1 (home and away), do I need to add up a bunch of different odds:

• Win 2 at home, 2 away
• Win 2 at home, 1 of 2 away, 1 at home
• Win 2 at home, 0 away, 1 at home, 1 away,
• . . . . .

Or is there an easier way. If it's the above, I'll write a macro.

Thanks

 

[JenniferMurphy]

Look, I'm not going to debate this thing with everyone, but I wanted to address Jennifer directly.

Let me address you directly. In my responses to you, I tried to be polite. But truthfully, they were junk and a complete waste of my time. There was not one iota of useful information in either of your posts.

You can mock me or call it disinformation,

No one is mocking you. They were calling your honesty into question. So am I.

but in all reality, as I mentioned to @RoryA, we have solved some pretty big problems at work using ChatGPT. Problems would've taken weeks of research, but we solved them in just a matter of a few days.

I seriously doubt that. More dishonesty?

I understand if you're not familiar with it but think of it as Google. If you have a problem, you can search Google to your heart's content, but you may or may not find the answer you're looking for. ChatGPT has already learned everything on the Internet, so all you need to do is ask the right questions, and you will get the answer you want.

Baloney

The problem here is we hadn't fine-tuned the questions yet before everyone started. My sole desire was to try and help someone solve a problem that had a large number of views and no responses. I understand how frustrating it can be to come to a forum like this, and not get any kind of help.

IMO, this is one of the best, if not the absolute best, forums anywhere. I have gotten tons of amazing and incredibly useful answers. This was more of a math question than an Excel question, so I had no problem with the lack of replies.

Personally, if I don't get an answer, or get one that works, I keep searching until I find one that does work. I don't think anything of the person who didn't get it just right.

As I said, I tried to be polite despite "your" responses completely missing the mark.

So, Jennifer, I apologize to you. My intention was to not "mislead" you, I was simply trying to help.

Your intention certainly was to mislead not only me but the entire board. If you had been honest, you would have said something like, "Hey, I got this response from ChatGpt."

As @RoryA pointed, out, a new rule was added pertaining to the use of ChatGPT. Since I came on board in 2018, and just recently started back in myself, I was not aware of the new rule. So, moving forward, I will no longer be using the service to aid people here.

I don't know if you have "aided" other people, but all you did was waste my time and that of everyone who read the thread.

 

[Alex Blakenburg]

Yes they do. If that is the case @ceranes please note Message Board Rules

This it not getting Jennifer any closer to her answer but here is Bill Jelen on the topic of ChatGPT ( I didn't know Mr Excel had added rule banning ChatGPT, I knew that Stack Overflow had it)

 

[JenniferMurphy]

This it not getting Jennifer any closer to her answer but here is Bill Jelen on the topic of ChatGPT ( I didn't know Mr Excel had added rule banning ChatGPT, I knew that Stack Overflow had it)

Thanks for the link to Jelen's comments.

As for my problem, I think I have a solution. I'll post it as soon as I am sure.