1:29 Minute Drill by Favre

[DonkeyOte]

FWIW even as a Brit I understand the significance of this game - ordinarily this would be a huge game (for Brits think Man U v Liverpool) but with the added spice of Favre it's pretty nuts. The only problem here with MNF is the time and so it becomes a case of "can I avoid the results until the re-run tomorrow" ? Reality, no. The BBC Sport website actually gives decent coverage to NFL these days no doubt in small part to the fact they now have SuperBowl coverage so I will inevitably stumble over the headline at some point in the morning.

So... although I'm not entirely clueless about the NFL I'm not aware as to which sides are being tipped to go the whole way this year.... and who is expected to this evening ?
(I'm guessing the Vikings given a) home advantage b) Peterson, right or wrong ?)

I am a Cowboys fan for no reason other than they always seemed kind of cool, that and they had some nice cheerleaders... so for me the loss of TO is an interesting one though the general consensus when I saw NFL Access the other day appeared to be "no great loss - he's 35" etc etc... is that the general feeling ?

Tom there tend to be a lot of 49ers fans in the UK... I would hazard a guess this is largely thanks to the fact they were the most successful franchise as and when free-to-air NFL coverage first came to the UK (I always remember the Patriots SUCKED).

 

[Joe4]

The Vikings are one of the favored teams to come out of the NFC, along with the New York Giants, and possibly the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles.

The AFC seems to be a bit more wide-open, mostly with the usual suspects, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and possibly the San Diego Chargers.

If I were a betting man, I would pick a Giants-Patriots rematch of the Super Bowl two years ago, but I am not a betting man (mostly because I am not very good at it)!

But its still early in the season, and a few key injuries could knock out some of those teams above, or a "sleeper" might arise.

 

[NateO]

This game is HUGE - it's all ESPN is talking about (our 24/7 Sports station).

So... although I'm not entirely clueless about the NFL I'm not aware as to which sides are being tipped to go the whole way this year.... and who is expected to this evening ?
(I'm guessing the Vikings given a) home advantage b) Peterson, right or wrong ?)

If you ever want to know who is favoured, you want to look at the Las Vegas point-spreads - for this game, it's 5.5 points, Vikings. That's not as big of a spread as it sounds like, because you almost automatically get 3 points, just for being at home. These are widely available on the Internet.

I never bet on sports in a non-trivial manner, but you don't want to guess too far away from the spread. Vegas doesn't always get it right, but they get right more often than they get it wrong - there's a ton of money on the table.

Anecdotaly, I'd take that spread and then some. There's a few factors why. Adrian Peterson - this guy is a freak and I happen to think Green Bay's LBs are overrated. The Vikings defensive line. The Packers have a key injury at Left Tackle, Clifton. So, they're going to feature a backup against one of the best defensive Right Ends (not exaggerating) in Jared Allen - that's going to be a serious problem. They're going to have to double him, especially if Grant can't run - and I think he's overrated too.

This Vikings team is really complete - they can win in different ways. But for the most part they really excel at smash-mouth football, i.e., we can run, and you can't.

 

[NateO]

I probably should bet more heavily on sports, because I am good at this. But I don't.

The problem with moving away with the spread is that you're giving it away, unless you're right. But even if you are right, you haven't made me wrong, per se - because I can arbitrage that - and have, for very trivial amounts of money.

Still, it's always fun to arbitrage a football game.

 

[NateO]

I should explain what I did, and what I mean by arbitrage, as this is a good story. This was when the Patriots played the Eagles in the Superbowl, and I believe the spread was 7 points in favor of the Patriots. This is what happens when you wander from the spread:

This is actually a good conceptual example of a hedged position, or a financial straddle.

Two things are required to make this work:

1) Pick the actual winner
2) Find insane people who bet with their hearts (versus statistical probability)

#1 is easy, Pats, everyone, including Vegas, was in on this, except people falling into category #2, who got a little carried away. And note, point spreads are actually important!

Position 1:
Okay, Person A, simply likes to argue, if I say Pats, he says Eagles; I get $10 on the Pats, no point spread.

Position 2:
Person B simply likes to take a position similar to Person A's with no real insight as to what she's getting herself into; I take the Pats for $5, no point spread.

Position 3 (The Hedge):
The most interesting position and the real beauty of this operation comes into play right here.

"Naughty" comes running up to me, and declares "I want to bet!" I said "Fine, I'll take the Patriots." He says "No, I want the Patriots." I says "How bad do you want 'em? I'll take the Eagles with a 21 point-spread (which is ridiculous, but the trick is to keep a straight face)." He says "Two touchdowns and I win." I says "Fine I'll take the Eagles, 13.5 point-spread." So, I have $10 on the Eagles, with a 13.5 point-spread

At this point I'm laughing my keister off at the bar, having realized what I have just done. And no one seems to get it, except me, I tried explaining this to Person X and Y, but they weren't computing…

Sounds crazy right, I've bet $15 on the Patriots, $10 on the Eagles? Er, not exactly. There are only three possible outcomes at this point:

1) Pats win by two touchdowns or more, I win $5
2) Pats win by less than two touchdowns, I win $25
3) Eagles win, I lose $5

I've basically purchased insurance, for free. I've placed $25 worth of bets and at this point I have an upside of $25 and a downside of $5, and I get to bet on the team I want to bet on, and it didn't cost me a dime!

Basically, I know the following:

The Patriots should win, and they should win by less than 1 touchdown and two field goals, which is still a winner for me at which point I win all of my positions, which I did.

So, as the game is coming to a close, Friend X clicks in on what I have done (as he watches me cheer for both sides) and asks "Why would you not do that all the time?" My answer? "I would do that all the time."

 

[schielrn]

Well that is one down with one to go for Minnesota sports.

 

[Joe4]

Favre was great last night, and Jared Allen was a BEAST!

I have to admit, I thought the Vikings were crazy in their pursuit of Brett Favre, the way that he was yanking them around. But if it wasn't for Brett Favre, I don't think the Vikings would have won their last two games. Thay's what they got him for, and so far he has lived up to the billing. Vikes fans just hope that he doesn't get banged up and peter out like he did last year for the Jets.

 

[NateO]

The Packers have a key injury at Left Tackle, Clifton. So, they're going to feature a backup against one of the best defensive Right Ends (not exaggerating) in Jared Allen - that's going to be a serious problem. They're going to have to double him...

I thought I sensed a serious issue, here. Wow, what a great game this guy had. I was pretty stoked when we picked up Allen, kind of felt for KC fans, this guy is relentless.

Favre looked great. There were a lot of mixed emotions in the Vikings fanbase about our pursuit of Favre - one of my best buddies thought we were crazy. Crazy like foxes. Adding him to the equation is the working definition of picking your poison. Any Vikings fan who thinks that was a bad call at this point, hasn't been watching.

Next up, the Twins!

 

[schielrn]

Well Congrats Nate. It looks like Minnesota got their wish. That was one heck of a game and either side deserved to win. There were too many amazing offensive and defensive plays to even count. I love the excitement going into the post season, but unfortunately I think that game hurt them badly for a deep run in the playoffs.

 

[NateO]

Thanks! Crazy couple of days in MN sports.

That was a pretty crazy game, 5+ hours? We definitely burned up just about everything we have for a bullpen, including 2 (pretty much) innings from Nathan.

We'll see, I've been discounting this Twins team all season, and this division-winning comeback, which is unprecedented, makes me think I need to get on board.

Plus I can't stand the Yankees - Go the Twins!