can i built with Excel a predicting model for sport betting?

[nivo11]

hello everyone


i just found this forum from google
i was trying to find statistic tool to predict soccer results and people told me that i should use Excel

what i want is to input the previous results and the software show to me


-the possibility of the X outcome to happen
-the tendencies and the streams for given outcomes (let say the team X had overs in the last 4 games out of 5)


can this happen by using excel?

 

[Gerald Higgins]

Hi, welcome to the board.

Excel can probably help you with this, but you'll need to do some work yourself, in terms of -
a) working out how exactly to calculate the possibility of x outcome
b) working out how exactly to calculate "tendencies and streams"

 

[nivo11]

Hi, welcome to the board.

Excel can probably help you with this, "

how?

 

[Gerald Higgins]

Have you done (a) and (b) ?

 

[nivo11]

Have you done (a) and (b) ?

no
i do not know Excel
i am asking if it can help me built a predict model
in order to learn how to use it

 

[Gerald Higgins]

I think you have two separate tasks here.

1) Decide how you want your predictive model to work.
For this bit, you don't need any knowledge of Excel at all.
You need to have some idea of the logic or rules that you are going to use in the model.
As a very simple example, let's say you're talking about football games.
You might decide that your logic is - if a team won its last 3 games in a row, I predict they will win their next game.
As I say, this is a very simple example, I imagine you've got something far more complicated in mind, probably with lots of rules / systems / patterns etc.
But you need to do this bit yourself.
Or if you can't, you need a different kind of help - you're asking someone to give you a sports prediction methodology.
I certainly can't help you with that, maybe other people on this board can, but I would suggest this is a topic better suited to other forums.
And as I say, you don't need any knowledge of Excel for this bit, you probably wouldn't even do it in Excel.

You might possibly use Excel to do statistical analysis to help you build such a methodology, to come up with the rules or systems you want to use, but again you need to have some idea of what type of analysis you might want to do.

2) Once you've done (1), then you can probably use Excel to build this, but there's not really any point starting on this until you've done (1).

 

[nivo11]

1) Decide how you want your predictive model to work.

.

the methodology/formula is already here
its the Poisson distribuition
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

and the stats re all over the internet,it is easy to find them

what i m looking for is a way to input ALL the stats on excel
and excel,after using Poisson distribution,to give outcome, let say all the team that in the next match have 70% possibilities to bring this over result

 

[Gerald Higgins]

OK.

How exactly are you going to make the Poisson distribution apply to a set of soccer results ?

Give us a small example of the stats you want to use.
And give us an example of how you would do it.

 

[nivo11]

have no idea
this is what i am trying to figure out

 

[Gerald Higgins]

Then with the greatest respect, I think you're looking in the wrong place.

You might get lucky and find someone on this board who happens to have done this kind of thing in the past, and can help you in more detail.
I don't think I personally can help you on this, with the stage you're at, maybe others on this board can.

But I think you'd do better by looking in sports forums, and specifically in sports statistics forums or sports betting forums - I assume there are such things.

Good luck !