Statistical Probability Problem Excel

[ndsergsanchez]

Hi Everyone This should be rather simple, any help is appreciated thank you

In column A i have a dates in order in order,
in column B i have either if the day was a "win" or a "lose"
In Column C i have a formula for current win streak

im looking for a formula to determine given the statistical probability of streaks if the following day will be a win or a lose
what are some ways i can use the data i have to statistically show, whether given the current streak or any other factors, give a statistical probably whether the following day would be a win or a lose?

 

[AhoyNC]

One way you took look at this assuming the probability of a win each day is the same (doesn't randomly change each day).
Add up the number of wins and divide by the total number of days.

In the example below we flip a fair coin for 33 days. A head is a win.
After 33 days we got 19 heads so 19/33 is about 58%. As the number of days increase we should get closer to the 50% we would expect.

Book1
	A	B	C	D	E
1	Date	Head = Win	Win Streak
2	2/1/2023	Head	1	Head	19
3	2/2/2023	Head	2	Tail	14
4	2/3/2023	Head	3	Total	33
5	2/4/2023	Head	4
6	2/5/2023	Tail	0		57.58%
7	2/6/2023	Tail	0
8	2/7/2023	Head	1
9	2/8/2023	Head	2
10	2/9/2023	Head	3
11	2/10/2023	Tail	0
12	2/11/2023	Tail	0
13	2/12/2023	Head	1
14	2/13/2023	Tail	0
15	2/14/2023	Tail	0
16	2/15/2023	Head	1
17	2/16/2023	Tail	0
18	2/17/2023	Tail	0
19	2/18/2023	Head	1
20	2/19/2023	Head	2
21	2/20/2023	Head	3
22	2/21/2023	Head	4
23	2/22/2023	Head	5
24	2/23/2023	Head	6
25	2/24/2023	Tail	0
26	2/25/2023	Tail	0
27	2/26/2023	Tail	0
28	2/27/2023	Tail	0
29	2/28/2023	Head	1
30	3/1/2023	Tail	0
31	3/2/2023	Head	1
32	3/3/2023	Head	2
33	3/4/2023	Tail	0
34	3/5/2023	Head	1
Sheet1

Cell Formulas
Range	Formula
E2:E3	E2	=COUNTIF($B$2:$B$34,D2)
E4	E4	=SUM(E2:E3)
E6	E6	=E2/E4