Solving for Rate with Unknown Payment

rnewton

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Joined
Apr 12, 2018
Messages
11
I am attempting to bulid a formula that will determine rate on an "end of the period" loan where the only knowns are:

Starting Balance
Term and frequency of payments
Number of payments made
Current Balance

For example: On a $100,000 30yr mortgage, 12 payments have been made, and the current balance is $98,524.66. What is the interest rate?

Thank you!
 

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I don't believe it can be done with a "reasonable" formula. (I don't consider iterative formulas with circular references to be "reasonable".)

In fact, I was surprised it could be done at all. I thought there were an infinite number of solutions.

But I tried the following:

A1: =RATE(12,B1,-100000,98524.66)
B1: =PMT(C1,30*12,-100000)
D1: =A1-C1

Using Solver:
Set objective: D1
To value: 0
By changing: C1

The result is 0.416674775301243% in A1 and 0.416674835056541% in C1, with -5.97552979320071E-10 in D1.

Note 1: A1 and C1 are the periodic (monthly) rate. You can annualize any number of ways, as prescribed by your region. Typically, 12*C1 or (1+C1)^12-1.

Note 2: You neglect to give the payment frequency. I assume monthly.
 
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Upvote 0
The answer to your question is yes, payment frequency is monthly. You definitely figured it out using solver. Until now I wasn't even aware of solver, it seems pretty cool.

What do you think about the possibility of calculating this based upon a factor of principal paydown and time? I know that any loan at a given term, rate, and payment frequency will pay down the balance at a consistent pace. For example:

A loan of any size with monthly payments, a 360 month term, and a rate of 5.00% will pay down the balance by approximately 1.475% in 12 months, 3.026% in 24 months, etc.


I don't believe it can be done with a "reasonable" formula. (I don't consider iterative formulas with circular references to be "reasonable".)

In fact, I was surprised it could be done at all. I thought there were an infinite number of solutions.

But I tried the following:

A1: =RATE(12,B1,-100000,98524.66)
B1: =PMT(C1,30*12,-100000)
D1: =A1-C1

Using Solver:
Set objective: D1
To value: 0
By changing: C1

The result is 0.416674775301243% in A1 and 0.416674835056541% in C1, with -5.97552979320071E-10 in D1.

Note 1: A1 and C1 are the periodic (monthly) rate. You can annualize any number of ways, as prescribed by your region. Typically, 12*C1 or (1+C1)^12-1.

Note 2: You neglect to give the payment frequency. I assume monthly.
 
Upvote 0
A loan of any size with monthly payments, a 360 month term, and a rate of 5.00% will pay down the balance by approximately 1.475% in 12 months, 3.026% in 24 months, etc.

That seems to be correct. Never thought about it that way. And I see where we might go with that.

But before I pursue the idea (if time permits) and discuss it, I need to know: why are you asking? If this isn't homework or a test question, what is the practical application of this solution?
 
Upvote 0
The purpose is to enhance a marketing list of existing mortgages. We cannot get rate or payment information, and are trying to approximate rate.
 
Upvote 0
Or make a little table to do the iteration.

A1 -100,000 [loan value]
B1 30 [years]
C1 12 [periods]
D1 98524.66 [balance after 12 periods]

then a little table, with two starting rows.

B4 0% [any starting value]
C4 =PMT(B4/12,$B$1*12,$A$1) [monthly payment]
D4 =FV(B4/12,$C$1,C4,$A$1) [balance after 12 periods]

and
B4 10% [a different starting value]
C5 filled down
D5 filled down

now start interpolation/extrapolation
B6 =FORECAST($D$1,B4:B5,D4:D5)
C6 filled down
D6 filled down

B6:D6 filled down, say 20 rows

then read (annual) interest rate from first column of table
=LOOKUP(100,B4:B23)

Just offered as an alternative to the wonderful goal seeker.
 
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A loan of any size with monthly payments, a 360 month term, and a rate of 5.00% will pay down the balance by approximately 1.475% in 12 months, 3.026% in 24 months, etc.

I was able to prove that you are right: for a given periodic rate "r":

fv[k] / pv = ( (1+r)^n - (1+r)^k ) / ( (1+r)^n - 1 )

which is independent of pmt, where fv[k] is the balance after k periods, pv is the original loan, and n is the number periods to reduce the loan to zero.

However, the form of the right-hand expression does not lend itself to deriving "r" algebraically
[*], given fv[k], pv, k and n.

The best I can do is:

(1+r)^k = (1-c)*(1+r)^n - c

where c = fv[k] / pv.

So we're back to using Goal Seek or Solver, albeit with a much simpler objective formula.


-----
[*] I should say: with an Excel formula, which might include an Excel function that iterates internally (e.g. RATE).
 
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The best I can do is:
(1+r)^k = (1-c)*(1+r)^n - c
[....]
So we're back to using Goal Seek or Solver, albeit with a much simpler objective formula.

I'll be back with a recommended solution later. I have to run off to an appointment now.
 
Upvote 0
Sorry that it took so long to post my recommended solution.

Call the following UDF from Excel using myRate(100000, 360, 98524.66, 12) .

Note that I have a typo in posting #7 . The correct equation is:

0 = (1-c)*(1+r)^n - (1+r)^k + c

where c = fv[k] / pv .

Code:
Option Explicit

Function myRate(pv As Double, n As Long, bal As Double, k As Long, Optional r As Double = 0.1)
Const nLoop As Long = 200
Const maxDbl As Double = (2 ^ 1023 - 2 ^ (1023 - 53)) * 2
Dim c As Double, i As Long
Dim f As Double, f0 As Double, r0 As Double, df As Double
Dim minF As Double, absF As Double, minR As Double

' determine r (periodic rate) for c = fv[k]/pv
' given only pv (loan amt), n (#periods to amortize loan to zero),
' fv[k] (bal after k periods), and k (#payments made).
' note: pmt is not given. thus:
' 0 = (1-c)*(1+r)^n - (1+r)^k + c

On Error GoTo badVal
If n <= 0 Or k <= 0 Or n < k Then GoTo badVal
If r < -1 Then GoTo badVal
c = Abs(bal / pv)

On Error GoTo done
minF = maxDbl
f0 = 0
r0 = r
minR = r0
For i = 1 To nLoop
    f = (1 - c) * (1 + r) ^ n - (1 + r) ^ k + c
    If f = 0 Then minF = f: minR = r: GoTo noErr
    absF = Abs(f)
    If absF < minF Then
        minF = absF: minR = r
    ElseIf absF = minF Then
        If r < minR Then minR = r
    End If
    If f = f0 Then Exit For
    If i = nLoop Then Exit For
    df = n * (1 - c) * (1 + r) ^ (n - 1) - k * (1 + r) ^ (k - 1)
    ' newton-raphson method
    r = r0 - f / df
    If r = r0 Or r < -1 Then Exit For
    r0 = r
    f0 = f
Next

done:
    ' arbitrarily "close to zero"
    If Abs(minF) < 0.00005 Then GoTo noErr
    myRate = CVErr(xlErrNum)
    Exit Function
badVal:
    myRate = CVErr(xlErrValue)
    Exit Function
noErr:
    myRate = minR
End Function
 
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Another possible Option:-
NB:- Results in "MsgBox", based on data as shown below:-
Code:
[COLOR=royalblue][B]Row No [/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=royalblue][B]Col(A)    [/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=royalblue][B]Col(B) [/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=royalblue][B]Col(C)       [/B][/COLOR] [COLOR=royalblue][B]Col(D)     [/B][/COLOR]
1.      Principle  Term    sTerm Amount  sTerm Mths 
2.      100000     360     98524.66      12

Code:
[COLOR=navy]Sub[/COLOR] MG15Apr53
[COLOR=navy]Dim[/COLOR] P [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] Double, Term [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] [COLOR=navy]Long,[/COLOR] Temp [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] Double, sTerm [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] [COLOR=navy]Long,[/COLOR] oVal [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] Double
[COLOR=navy]Dim[/COLOR] n [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] [COLOR=navy]Long,[/COLOR] Pnt1 [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] Double, Pnt2 [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] Double, c [COLOR=navy]As[/COLOR] Double
P = [a2]: Term = [B2]: Temp = [c2]: sTerm = [d2]
[COLOR=navy]Do[/COLOR] Until Pnt1 > Pnt2
    c = c + 0.000001
    [COLOR=navy]If[/COLOR] c > 1 [COLOR=navy]Then[/COLOR] GoTo NoMatch
    Pnt1 = ((P * ((1 + c) ^ (sTerm + 1) - (1 + c) ^ sTerm)) - (Temp * c)) / (((1 + c) ^ sTerm) - 1)
    Pnt2 = ((P * ((1 + c) ^ (Term + 1) - (1 + c) ^ Term))) / (((1 + c) ^ Term) - 1)
[COLOR=navy]Loop[/COLOR]
[COLOR=navy]If[/COLOR] c = 0.000001 [COLOR=navy]Then[/COLOR]
    MsgBox "Data does not Compute"
[COLOR=navy]Else[/COLOR]
    MsgBox "Principle = " & P & ".  Term = " & Term & ". Rep'[COLOR=green][B]nt to " & sTerm & " Mth = " & Temp & vbLf & vbLf & _[/B][/COLOR]
    "Annual Rate = " & Format(((1 + c) ^ 12) - 1, "0.00%") & vbLf _
    & "Monthly Rate =" & Format(c, "0.0000%") & vbLf _
    & "Rep'[COLOR=green][B]nts/Mth = " & Pnt2[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=navy]End[/COLOR] If
NoMatch:
[COLOR=navy]End[/COLOR] [COLOR=navy]Sub[/COLOR]
Regards Mick
 
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