PGC01, your question about the degree is valid. The 4th degree trendline gives me an R^2 value of .8402. The 5th degree gives me an R^2 of .9003.
The 5th degree is a much better fit and I believe it is significant to what I'm doing.
Here's the csv data…
11/10/08,-9.029246541
11/03/08,-7.652135884
10/27/08,-7.163713862
10/20/08,-9.2424167
10/13/08,-7.656954371
10/06/08,-8.305850563
09/29/08,-4.783018195
09/22/08,-2.780664655
09/15/08,-2.211173752
09/08/08,-2.284417971
09/02/08,-2.072236805
08/25/08,-1.544869003
08/18/08,-1.570887636
08/11/08,-1.255986003
08/04/08,-1.443101057
07/28/08,-1.424701684
07/21/08,-1.101460971
07/14/08,-1.368603035
07/07/08,-1.853356715
06/30/08,-1.703388322
06/23/08,-1.137000348
06/16/08,-0.882612652
06/09/08,-0.798015256
06/02/08,-0.939357193
05/26/08,-0.916643541
05/19/08,-1.149500761
05/12/08,-1.219920273
05/05/08,-1.713939401
04/28/08,-1.630858428
04/21/08,-1.752253543
04/14/08,-1.663880014
04/07/08,-1.841363393
03/31/08,-1.688637921
03/24/08,-2.153683362
03/17/08,-2.318788977
03/10/08,-2.216916808
03/03/08,-2.05662268
02/25/08,-1.54897765
02/18/08,-1.452997515
02/11/08,-1.367648329
02/04/08,-1.513040176
01/28/08,-1.03901499
01/21/08,-1.521890006
01/14/08,-1.699863583
01/07/08,-0.835413784
12/31/07,-0.45031559
12/24/07,0.126464642
12/17/07,0.084069987
12/10/07,0.041493123
12/03/07,0.419514854
11/26/07,-0.194196659
11/19/07,-0.610792553
11/12/07,-0.494070341
11/05/07,-0.337849593
10/29/07,0.646251856
10/22/07,0.868914379
10/15/07,0.840488613
10/08/07,1.208801537
10/01/07,0.965349863
09/24/07,0.737103921
09/17/07,0.656014101
09/10/07,0.510108212
09/04/07,0.553970571
08/27/07,0.649880015
08/20/07,0.651390849
08/13/07,0.571544126
08/06/07,0.766055229
07/30/07,0.548490441
07/23/07,0.966402925
07/16/07,1.858700652
07/09/07,2.036843253
07/02/07,2.175015255
06/25/07,2.229134391
06/18/07,2.078742924
06/11/07,2.282489889
06/04/07,2.261362942
05/28/07,2.418960091
05/21/07,2.404044213
05/14/07,2.648009016
05/07/07,2.463044551
04/30/07,2.746420036
04/23/07,2.723451876
04/16/07,2.76675148
04/09/07,2.074064356
04/02/07,2.077573876
03/26/07,1.976744702
03/19/07,1.925430037
03/12/07,1.680195844
03/05/07,1.456947952
02/26/07,1.436074967
02/19/07,2.153339589
02/12/07,2.149328727
02/05/07,2.110727027
01/29/07,2.318607152
01/22/07,2.297640741
01/15/07,2.271701642
01/08/07,2.225529705
01/01/07,1.569090018
12/25/06,1.687932976
12/18/06,1.701329349
12/11/06,1.851108949
12/04/06,1.867609621
11/27/06,1.968120608
11/20/06,2.027939472
11/13/06,1.843133247
11/06/06,1.815356892
10/30/06,2.280860704
10/23/06,2.551083457
10/16/06,2.391347009
10/09/06,2.312541925
10/02/06,2.394567072
09/25/06,2.179765319
09/18/06,2.343653329
09/11/06,2.32884706
09/04/06,2.528969432
08/28/06,2.247966947
08/21/06,2.729203111
08/14/06,2.64611791
08/07/06,2.904373568
07/31/06,2.023384547
07/24/06,1.772648891
07/17/06,1.889318354
07/10/06,2.042651694
07/03/06,1.584547499
06/26/06,1.661832988
06/19/06,1.61899032
06/12/06,1.665384188
06/05/06,1.643509347
05/29/06,2.11246143
05/22/06,2.386050991
05/15/06,2.719552061
05/08/06,3.055288585
05/01/06,3.073302923
04/24/06,2.284739781
04/17/06,2.466420609
04/10/06,2.187816521
04/03/06,2.187816521
03/27/06,2.681210083