mbatterson
New Member
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2018
- Messages
- 1
Hello,
I was recommended to this forum by a friend who spoke very highly of it, so I hope I've landed in the right place!
I am looking to put together an excel sheet to predict the scores, win probability and cover probability of american football. I would like to do this for other sports as well once I have the base model made.
I have researched different way's to accomplish this and what I've found out is that Poisson Distribution would be the best way to determine total's. Once I've determined the totals of each team head to head, I can then determine the win probability as well as the probability to cover the spread.
Where I need some help is how to incorporate the data I have chosen into a Poisson Distribution model correctly.
Here is the data I've decided to use to determine the outcomes:
Home Field Advantage Tier
Turnover
Strength of Schedule Rank
Offensive Point Per Game
Def Points Per Game (allowed)
League Average PPG
Offensive Yard Per Game
Defensive Yard Per Game
League Average YPG
Any help is apprecaited!! Thank you
I was recommended to this forum by a friend who spoke very highly of it, so I hope I've landed in the right place!
I am looking to put together an excel sheet to predict the scores, win probability and cover probability of american football. I would like to do this for other sports as well once I have the base model made.
I have researched different way's to accomplish this and what I've found out is that Poisson Distribution would be the best way to determine total's. Once I've determined the totals of each team head to head, I can then determine the win probability as well as the probability to cover the spread.
Where I need some help is how to incorporate the data I have chosen into a Poisson Distribution model correctly.
Here is the data I've decided to use to determine the outcomes:
Home Field Advantage Tier
Turnover
Strength of Schedule Rank
Offensive Point Per Game
Def Points Per Game (allowed)
League Average PPG
Offensive Yard Per Game
Defensive Yard Per Game
League Average YPG
Any help is apprecaited!! Thank you