Predict Blackjack cards?

[GoodMornang]

Does anyone know how I would go about trying to predicting the next hand in a blackjack game. Just the first 3 cards, (1 for dealer, 2 for player)
I thought to put the 3 cards that come out in different columns and then have another column listing the total list of all the cards in Blackjack
and having a separate cell for the total number of cards that are used in a shoe. Is there a way to predict what could be the next 3 cards based on
what has came out previously and to make that prediction based on the total number of cards that are left in the shoe?

 

[6StringJazzer]

The word "predict" is much too strong here. You can calculate very accurately what is the probability of any given card being dealt, based on what cards have been dealt up to that point. But is that really what you need? To start to answer your question, you would need to explain your overall goal in doing this, as well as exactly what you mean by "predicting the next hand." For example, are you trying to use Excel to track probabilities as a game is being played? Or are you trying to simulate a game using Excel?

Here is why I say that. Suppose the shoe holds four decks and the decks have been shuffled together. There are 4 copies of each card, and 4 x 52 = 208 cards in the shoe. Let's look at the first three cards out of the shoe:

• The probability of any given card being dealt as the first card is 4/208.
• The chance that the same card is dealt as the second card is 3/207. For any other card, the probability is 4/207.
• The chance that one of the first two cards is dealt as the third card is 3/206, unless the same card was dealt twice already, in which case the probability is 2/206. For any other card, the probability is 4/206.

The reasoning continues like this as the game continues.

So now let's say that 12 unique cards have been dealt in play so far (more than one round). You can predict the cards with the greatest probability of being drawn in the next deal of three cards, but the chances that your "prediction" will be correct is still extremely small.

If you are doing card counting, then you don't care if a card is going to be the Jack of Hearts, you just card if is going to be a 10 or a face card. You don't care about the suit for any cards.

 

[GoodMornang]

I was just trying to use Excel to track probabilities as a game is being played. I was trying to think of an alternative besides card counting.

 

[GoodMornang]

This is what I'm trying to do. I want to ask excel to make an estimated guess on what the next 3 cards could be based on previous results that have came out.

 

[6StringJazzer]

I'm still not clear on what you want your result to look like. Let's say the following cards have been dealt:

AC 10H 7S 3C JH 5D

The probability of the next card dealt will be based on the following. What do you want your result to look like?

$scratch.xlsm
	A	B	C
1	Rank	Suit	Probability
2	A	H	1.980%
3	2	H	1.980%
4	3	H	1.980%
5	4	H	1.980%
6	5	H	1.980%
7	6	H	1.980%
8	7	H	1.980%
9	8	H	1.980%
10	9	H	1.980%
11	10	H	1.485%
12	J	H	1.485%
13	Q	H	1.980%
14	K	H	1.980%
15	A	D	1.980%
16	2	D	1.980%
17	3	D	1.980%
18	4	D	1.980%
19	5	D	1.485%
20	6	D	1.980%
21	7	D	1.980%
22	8	D	1.980%
23	9	D	1.980%
24	10	D	1.980%
25	J	D	1.980%
26	Q	D	1.980%
27	K	D	1.980%
28	A	S	1.980%
29	2	S	1.980%
30	3	S	1.980%
31	4	S	1.980%
32	5	S	1.980%
33	6	S	1.980%
34	7	S	1.485%
35	8	S	1.980%
36	9	S	1.980%
37	10	S	1.980%
38	J	S	1.980%
39	Q	S	1.980%
40	K	S	1.980%
41	A	C	1.485%
42	2	C	1.980%
43	3	C	1.485%
44	4	C	1.980%
45	5	C	1.980%
46	6	C	1.980%
47	7	C	1.980%
48	8	C	1.980%
49	9	C	1.980%
50	10	C	1.980%
51	J	C	1.980%
52	Q	C	1.980%
53	K	C	1.980%
Cards

Cell Formulas
Range	Formula
A15:A53	A15	=A2
C2:C53	C2	=D2/SUM($D$2:$D$53)

 

[GoodMornang]

I was hoping to ask Excel what the next 3 cards could be for the 4th round/game based on what has previously come out. So the prediction
should say something like
Card 1 Prediction - K
Card 2 Prediction - 5
Card 3 Prediction - 2

 

[Joe4]

Think about this logically.
How can you predict what the next card will be when every card left in the deck has the EXACT same probability of being the next one to show up?
It can really do nothing more than make a "random guess".

As Jeff was alluding to, you can say what the odds are that the next card will be "a certain suit, color, or face value", based on what has already been selected, but that is about it.

Think of a simple example. If you have a deck of 52 cards, and you select the King of Hearts, to try to predict the face value of the next card will be:
- a King is 3/51
- is any other face value is 4/51

So, since you have 12 different (non-king) face values with a probability of 4/51, how can you predict the face value of the next card?
How do you decide from 12 options that all have the exact same probability (all of which are less than 10%)?
None of them is "likely".

As you get down to the last few cards of the deck, where most options have been eliminated, then you may be able to make a better prediction, when the odds are a lot higher.
But before then, it seems to be an exercise in futility.

 

[GoodMornang]

Ok then. It was worth asking anyway, I just wanted to find out if it was possible that's all.

 

[Joe4]

Ok then. It was worth asking anyway, I just wanted to find out if it was possible that's all.

No problem.
Note that it isn't sort of Excel limitation, it is just the nature of the logic/game.
That is why it is so hard to beat "games of chance" with any sort of consistency!

 

[6StringJazzer]

Card counters can succeed because they are doing things like: I have a Jack and a 5. What are the chances, based on the cards that have been dealt, that my next card will be 6 or lower? Are those chances high enough to justify drawing another card?

That is a whole lot different than predicting what the next card will be.