Hi There!
I was having trouble making an accurate sales forecast and was wondering if anyone could help me.
I have the monthly sales figures for the past 3 years. Readign them you can tell:
1) There is seasonality (Sales are high in Feb and Aug but low in other months)
2) Sales since September 2013 have been significantly down (not by a fixed % but still down overall)
3) The sales aren't linear (since 2010, some months have had more sales, some have had less, some both)
I tried making a forecast by using a weighted average of the previous years' monthly sales
E.G.
January 2013 - Sales = 100 (weighted .60)
January 2012 - Sales = 50 (weighted .30)
January 2011 - Sales = 25 (weighted .10)
However the problem with this is that it, as the sales figures didn't drop hugely until September, the forecast figures for Jan 2014 -Aug 2014 are skewed quite high compared to the actual sales of the past 6 months.
Does anyone know if it's posisble to adjust the weighted average so it takes into account the trend of lower sales that i'm experiencing?
Thanks,
Abbey87
I was having trouble making an accurate sales forecast and was wondering if anyone could help me.
I have the monthly sales figures for the past 3 years. Readign them you can tell:
1) There is seasonality (Sales are high in Feb and Aug but low in other months)
2) Sales since September 2013 have been significantly down (not by a fixed % but still down overall)
3) The sales aren't linear (since 2010, some months have had more sales, some have had less, some both)
I tried making a forecast by using a weighted average of the previous years' monthly sales
E.G.
January 2013 - Sales = 100 (weighted .60)
January 2012 - Sales = 50 (weighted .30)
January 2011 - Sales = 25 (weighted .10)
However the problem with this is that it, as the sales figures didn't drop hugely until September, the forecast figures for Jan 2014 -Aug 2014 are skewed quite high compared to the actual sales of the past 6 months.
Does anyone know if it's posisble to adjust the weighted average so it takes into account the trend of lower sales that i'm experiencing?
Thanks,
Abbey87
