In the following web page: www.isthmuspartners.ae in the "Publications" tab a UAE based consultancy has uploaded a pdf report titled "Modelling and Simulation - World Cup Simulator" which can be downloaded for free. This report is a practical summary of modelling and simulation using Monte Carlo techniques.
It also details how the tehnique has been used to create a Monte Carlo simulation of the FIFA World Cup. An Excel application illustrating this application of Monte Carlo simulation has also been uploaded to the same website and can be downloaded for free. Unfortunately the programmer has protected the VBA code and it cannot be scrutinized, however this demonstrates the power of Monte Carlo simulation, in this case in a fun way.
Below are the results of a 2000 iteration simulation I have run using the in-built model assumptions. The results show each team's probabilities of reaching different stages of the World Cup.
Team__________ Round 2___ QFs___ SFs___ Final___ Winner
Algeria_________ 31.3%____ 10.1%__ 2.6%___ 0.7%___ 0.2%
Argentina______ 86.8%____ 52.5%__ 30.0%__ 13.3%__ 4.7%
Australia_______ 32.8%____ 13.0%__ 4.4%___ 1.6%___ 0.5%
Brazil__________ 90.8%____ 58.0%__ 41.8%__ 28.5%__ 19.8%
Cameroon______ 57.9%____ 29.1%__ 8.7%___ 2.4%___ 0.7%
Chile__________ 61.5%____ 18.2%__ 8.4%___ 3.2%___ 0.7%
Côte d'Ivoire____ 30.0%____ 8.7%___ 3.4%___ 1.1%___ 0.4%
Denmark_______ 39.5%____ 11.1%__ 2.8%___ 1.1%___ 0.4%
England________ 87.0%____ 49.3%__ 34.3%__ 16.7%__ 8.6%
France_________ 86.8%____ 58.4%__ 30.4%__ 13.3%__ 5.8%
Germany_______ 85.1%____ 59.8%__ 38.7%__ 17.0%__ 8.1%
Ghana_________ 14.8%____ 4.1%___ 1.0%___ 0.2%___ 0.0%
Greece________ 65.5%____ 30.8%__ 11.8%__ 4.7%___ 1.5%
Honduras______ 15.5%____ 4.2%___ 1.3%___ 0.3%___ 0.1%
Italy__________ 85.1%____ 55.0%__ 25.9%__ 17.5%__ 9.3%
Japan_________ 17.4%____ 5.9%___ 1.1%___ 0.0%___ 0.0%
Korea DPR_____ 4.9%_____ 0.9%___ 0.4%___ 0.1%___ 0.0%
Korea Republic__ 17.4%____ 4.0%___ 1.3%___ 0.4%___ 0.1%
Mexico________ 62.4%____ 25.5%__ 9.1%___ 2.7%___ 0.5%
Netherlands____ 85.3%____ 54.0%__ 23.6%__ 15.9%__ 8.5%
New Zealand___ 7.5%_____ 1.9%___ 0.5%___ 0.1%___ 0.1%
Nigeria________ 30.5%____ 9.7%___ 2.8%___ 1.0%___ 0.3%
Paraguay______ 65.1%____ 23.6%__ 5.9%___ 1.9%___ 0.7%
Portugal_______ 74.4%____ 35.5%__ 21.5%__ 13.2%__ 6.2%
Serbia_________ 67.3%___ 35.7%__ 16.5%__ 6.9%___ 2.6%
Slovakia_______ 42.4%___ 19.6%__ 6.2%___ 2.0%___ 0.8%
Slovenia_______ 16.8%___ 5.0%___ 1.4%___ 0.5%___ 0.2%
South Africa____ 7.8%___ 1.5%___ 0.3%___ 0.0%___ 0.0%
Spain_________ 93.0%___ 63.6%__ 43.6%__ 28.4%__ 18.2%
Switzerland_____ 30.1%___ 11.1%__ 5.2%___ 1.4%___ 0.2%
Uruguay________ 43.1%___ 17.8%__ 6.7%___ 2.2%___ 0.9%
USA___________ 65.0%___ 23.2%__ 8.9%___ 2.6%___ 0.7%
It also details how the tehnique has been used to create a Monte Carlo simulation of the FIFA World Cup. An Excel application illustrating this application of Monte Carlo simulation has also been uploaded to the same website and can be downloaded for free. Unfortunately the programmer has protected the VBA code and it cannot be scrutinized, however this demonstrates the power of Monte Carlo simulation, in this case in a fun way.
Below are the results of a 2000 iteration simulation I have run using the in-built model assumptions. The results show each team's probabilities of reaching different stages of the World Cup.
Team__________ Round 2___ QFs___ SFs___ Final___ Winner
Algeria_________ 31.3%____ 10.1%__ 2.6%___ 0.7%___ 0.2%
Argentina______ 86.8%____ 52.5%__ 30.0%__ 13.3%__ 4.7%
Australia_______ 32.8%____ 13.0%__ 4.4%___ 1.6%___ 0.5%
Brazil__________ 90.8%____ 58.0%__ 41.8%__ 28.5%__ 19.8%
Cameroon______ 57.9%____ 29.1%__ 8.7%___ 2.4%___ 0.7%
Chile__________ 61.5%____ 18.2%__ 8.4%___ 3.2%___ 0.7%
Côte d'Ivoire____ 30.0%____ 8.7%___ 3.4%___ 1.1%___ 0.4%
Denmark_______ 39.5%____ 11.1%__ 2.8%___ 1.1%___ 0.4%
England________ 87.0%____ 49.3%__ 34.3%__ 16.7%__ 8.6%
France_________ 86.8%____ 58.4%__ 30.4%__ 13.3%__ 5.8%
Germany_______ 85.1%____ 59.8%__ 38.7%__ 17.0%__ 8.1%
Ghana_________ 14.8%____ 4.1%___ 1.0%___ 0.2%___ 0.0%
Greece________ 65.5%____ 30.8%__ 11.8%__ 4.7%___ 1.5%
Honduras______ 15.5%____ 4.2%___ 1.3%___ 0.3%___ 0.1%
Italy__________ 85.1%____ 55.0%__ 25.9%__ 17.5%__ 9.3%
Japan_________ 17.4%____ 5.9%___ 1.1%___ 0.0%___ 0.0%
Korea DPR_____ 4.9%_____ 0.9%___ 0.4%___ 0.1%___ 0.0%
Korea Republic__ 17.4%____ 4.0%___ 1.3%___ 0.4%___ 0.1%
Mexico________ 62.4%____ 25.5%__ 9.1%___ 2.7%___ 0.5%
Netherlands____ 85.3%____ 54.0%__ 23.6%__ 15.9%__ 8.5%
New Zealand___ 7.5%_____ 1.9%___ 0.5%___ 0.1%___ 0.1%
Nigeria________ 30.5%____ 9.7%___ 2.8%___ 1.0%___ 0.3%
Paraguay______ 65.1%____ 23.6%__ 5.9%___ 1.9%___ 0.7%
Portugal_______ 74.4%____ 35.5%__ 21.5%__ 13.2%__ 6.2%
Serbia_________ 67.3%___ 35.7%__ 16.5%__ 6.9%___ 2.6%
Slovakia_______ 42.4%___ 19.6%__ 6.2%___ 2.0%___ 0.8%
Slovenia_______ 16.8%___ 5.0%___ 1.4%___ 0.5%___ 0.2%
South Africa____ 7.8%___ 1.5%___ 0.3%___ 0.0%___ 0.0%
Spain_________ 93.0%___ 63.6%__ 43.6%__ 28.4%__ 18.2%
Switzerland_____ 30.1%___ 11.1%__ 5.2%___ 1.4%___ 0.2%
Uruguay________ 43.1%___ 17.8%__ 6.7%___ 2.2%___ 0.9%
USA___________ 65.0%___ 23.2%__ 8.9%___ 2.6%___ 0.7%
