Monte carlo simulation Excel

B

bgn_21

New Member
Joined
Dec 6, 2012
Messages
1
Hello everyone,

I am a beginner in VBA.
I need to create a Monte Carlo simulation on VBA for the Martingale roullete strategy . I have the follow code that, but I want a function that give me the returns (profits in cash) instead of 1 and 2 like appear in excel file. How I do that?

Option Explicit
Function Random(Lower As Integer, Upper As Integer) As Integer

Randomize
Random = Int((Upper - Lower + 1) * Rnd + Lower) ' to produce integer in a given range


End Function

Sub MonteCarlo()
Dim IniMoney As Single, MaxPlays As Integer, StopProfit As Single
Dim ColumnNum As Integer, CurrentProfit As Single, Y As Integer, X As Integer
Dim Result As Integer, Stake As Integer, CumTot As Integer

For X = 7 To 16 'X is the column value
Cells(17, X).Select
ColumnNum = ActiveCell.Column
IniMoney = Sheet1.Cells(18, ColumnNum).Value
MaxPlays = Sheet1.Cells(19, ColumnNum).Value
StopProfit = Sheet1.Cells(20, ColumnNum).Value

Stake = 1
CumTot = IniMoney

For Y = 21 To 21 + MaxPlays ' Y is the row value
Result = Random(1, 2)
Sheet1.Cells(Y, ColumnNum).Value = Result

Select Case Result
Case 1 'WIN
CumTot = CumTot + Stake
Stake = 1
If CumTot = StopProfit Then Exit For
Case 2 'LOSE
CumTot = CumTot - Stake
Stake = Stake * 2
End Select

Next Y

Sheet1.Cells(13, ColumnNum).Value = CumTot
Next X

End Sub

The Excel sheet:

Average
Stdev

<colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2669;width:55pt" width="73"> <col style="width:48pt" span="10" width="64"> </colgroup><tbody>
[TD="width: 73"]% wins[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]51%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]49%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]54%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]51%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]51%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]52%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 64"]53%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]1,480392[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,509804[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,490196[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,45098[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,490099[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,485149[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,480198[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,465347[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]0,502272[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,502272[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,502469[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,500495[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,501193[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,501093[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,500499[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,500499[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,500944[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0,500199[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63"]Ini Money[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]500[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]500[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]500[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]500[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63"]Max Plays[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]500[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]500[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]200[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63"]Stop Profit[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]100[/TD]

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Hi,
The short answer to your question is that you should replace this line with one that gives you the profit rather than the result (win or lose):
Code: 
Sheet1.Cells(Y, ColumnNum).Value = Result

I guess it should be:
Code: 
Sheet1.Cells(Y, ColumnNum).Value = cumTotal+IIf(Result=1,Stake,-Stake)

I found it interesting enough to rewrite the program so if you want to see my revised version here's copy of the workbook:
<a href="http://northernocean.net/etc/mrexcel/20121209_martingale.zip">Martingale Experiment (zip file)</a>
sha256 checksum: 8b537580baa91725faed9ce138de2ca2e826a2dbd14888d3b10d7e10378bea00

I did adjust the rules so that the player must quit when he cannot cover his bet. Also allows for repeated simulations so you can test it out the results over a series of 10 games, or 100 games.
 
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