Here is how I handle that....
Until a game is played, I have a formula that builds a text formula of all the possible teams who can win a game. For example, one of tonights games consists of the possibilities of "CT,WA". (Each team has a 2-character code).
The formulas for later rounds continue to build this text string. Right now, the formula for the final game consists of this value: "LS,TX,ME,LA,CT,WA,GM,WS,VI,BC,FL,GE". This indicates that any of LSU, UCLA, Texas, Memphis, UCLA, UConn, Washington, Geo Mason, Wichita State, Villanova, Boston College, Florida, Georgetown are still valid possible winners for the final game.
Each text string is comprised of a formula that joins the possible winners from the previous 2 games. =BL4&","&BL5.
Tonight, if UConn beats Washington, I will overwrite the formula for Round 3 Game 5 with CT. This will make the possible teams for Round 6 Game 1 have one less possible entry.
I have a large matrix of everyone's picks. To figure out if player 14 still has a possible chance of winning Round 6 Game 1, I use =FIND(BL27,BL$7). This looks for this player's pick within that long text string of the possible winners. If it is found, I get a number. If it is not found, I get a #VALUE! error. So, the actual formula to track a known future loss becomes:
=IF(ISERR((FIND(BL27,BL$7,1)-1)),1,0)
This will make more sense when I include screen shots this weekend.
Bill