Just need to know where i start?

[bduscher]

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[TD="colspan: 15"]George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George’s sailboats during each of the past four seasons was as follows:



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[TD]YEAR [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 4"]sailboats in year 5 will equal 5,600




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[TD]SEASON [/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
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[TD]Winter[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,400[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,200[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]900[/TD]
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[TD]Spring[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,500[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,400[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,600[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,500[/TD]
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[TD]Summer[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,100[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,900[/TD]
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[TD]Fall[/TD]
[TD] 600[/TD]
[TD] 750[/TD]
[TD] 650[/TD]
[TD] 500[/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 23"]George has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 5,600 sailboats. Based on this data and the multiplicative seasonal model, what will the demand level be for George’s sailboats in the spring of year 5?




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[frank_AL]

In the simplest of math I added each of the 4 years of data for each season.
Spring totaled 6,000 of the total of 20,000 or 30%
30% * 5,600 would be 1,680

Looking at Spring as a percentage of Sales for each of the 4 years there is no consistency that could lead to forecasting that Spring would be something greater than the 4 year average of 30%

Spring as a % of Total Sales:
Year
1 33.3%
2 25.7%
3 30.5%
4 31.3%

Looking at years 3 & 4 there was a 4.8% increase in year 3 and 0.8% in year 4 that would average out to 2.8% increase over the past 2 year.
If you apply that to the year 5 forecast of 5,600 Spring would represent 32.8% for a total of 1,837.

In the end it depends on how you want to deal with the trend which is not really consistent enough in my mind.

 

[AhoyNC]

Maybe some of these links dealing with seasonal & trend forecasting will help.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIgOLtdpNMw
http://www.exceluser.com/excel_dashb...lity-sales.htm


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