Forecasting

[cloughie]

Hi I'm trying to forecast my unit sales for the following year. I have last years data but I'm at a loss as to where i begin. My data is below along with what i expect the market changes to be.

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[TD]Monthly Data[/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD]Jan[/TD]
[TD]Feb[/TD]
[TD]Mar[/TD]
[TD]Apr[/TD]
[TD]May[/TD]
[TD]Jun[/TD]
[TD]Jul[/TD]
[TD]Aug[/TD]
[TD]Sep[/TD]
[TD]Oct[/TD]
[TD]Nov[/TD]
[TD]Dec[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019 Market[/TD]
[TD]20,886[/TD]
[TD]18,820[/TD]
[TD]19,724[/TD]
[TD]19,970[/TD]
[TD]17,397[/TD]
[TD]17,235[/TD]
[TD]16,918[/TD]
[TD]18,166[/TD]
[TD]26,109[/TD]
[TD]29,878[/TD]
[TD]33,118[/TD]
[TD]21,992[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
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[TR]
[TD]My Market Share[/TD]
[TD]9.5%[/TD]
[TD]15.3%[/TD]
[TD]18.5%[/TD]
[TD]18.4%[/TD]
[TD]11.4%[/TD]
[TD]14.5%[/TD]
[TD]14.9%[/TD]
[TD]13.8%[/TD]
[TD]11.0%[/TD]
[TD]11.0%[/TD]
[TD]12.0%[/TD]
[TD]10.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total Sales[/TD]
[TD]1,989[/TD]
[TD]2,878[/TD]
[TD]3,654[/TD]
[TD]3,667[/TD]
[TD]1,985[/TD]
[TD]2,501[/TD]
[TD]2,528[/TD]
[TD]2,515[/TD]
[TD]2,882[/TD]
[TD]3,272[/TD]
[TD]3,968[/TD]
[TD]2,390[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Standard[/TD]
[TD]462[/TD]
[TD]988[/TD]
[TD]1,137[/TD]
[TD]1,034[/TD]
[TD]756[/TD]
[TD]809[/TD]
[TD]774[/TD]
[TD]773[/TD]
[TD]831[/TD]
[TD]906[/TD]
[TD]880[/TD]
[TD]376[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Plus[/TD]
[TD]1,071[/TD]
[TD]1,350[/TD]
[TD]1,320[/TD]
[TD]1,741[/TD]
[TD]905[/TD]
[TD]1,234[/TD]
[TD]1,228[/TD]
[TD]1,352[/TD]
[TD]1,411[/TD]
[TD]1,655[/TD]
[TD]2,152[/TD]
[TD]1,335[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Plus Pro[/TD]
[TD]456[/TD]
[TD]540[/TD]
[TD]1,197[/TD]
[TD]892[/TD]
[TD]324[/TD]
[TD]458[/TD]
[TD]526[/TD]
[TD]390[/TD]
[TD]640[/TD]
[TD]711[/TD]
[TD]936[/TD]
[TD]679[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
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[TD]The overall market will shrink by 10% in 2020[/TD]
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[TD]Q1 2020 will be down 25% vs previous year[/TD]
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[TD]My target market share for full year 2020 = 15%[/TD]
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[TD]Plus range to be 45% of My total volume[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[baitmaster]

Hi, you're going to struggle to get a response with a question like this because it's not really an Excel question, and it's a bit open-ended

There's lots of things we can do in Excel to model this, but you need to be clear on what you want to do, and there's some gaps in the information we need - for example, where volumes change, is this a step change or a smooth change over time?

If I was you I wouldn't seek to make a fixed set of calculations (10% here, 25% there), but a dynamic set that allows you to change your assumptions and see what happens, as follows:

Start with your initial data table as shown above
2019 Market will change in size. This could be assumed as a fixed change -10% in every month, or it could be -0% in month 1, -20% in month 12: the profile can make a difference. Decide how you want to do it, create a set of 12 multipliers and apply to the 2019 Market row

Your market share = 15% = a fixed value applied to every result from above. But this doesn't allow any sensitivity analysis, so you might want to consider a profile on this too. Or you could add a simple control that allows you to quickly slide this input up or down, or perhaps include a Goal Seek that finds your break even position

What specific modelling issues (formulas, use of slide bars to create variable inputs, scenario modelling etc) do you need help with? This forum will provide better help for specific Excel problems