Forecasting Price if target Exponential Moving Average value is known

[jamc]

Hello,

Here's my problem.

You can download my example file here : http://www.freccetricolorifanclub127.ch/xmav.xlsx

Colomn A shows closing prices ; the prices *always* alternate up and down ; there cannot be an occurrence that prices moves up or down twice in sequence. (see Point and Figure chart).

Column B calculates the 5 period exponential moving average as follows : =IF(A15<>"";A15*2/(F6+1)+B14*(1-2/(F6+1));"")

Column C determines whether the moving average goes Up or Down (U / D) vs. its previous value.


At the moment, the XMav is moving (D)own.

I want to know which price cell A15 should reach, in order for the XMav value to reverse direction (i.e. moving back up).

The determination for the prices to move back up, is that it has to be at least above the 3rd last XMav Value by 0.0001 (that is Cell F8 "target price" : 0.72066 + 0.0001 = 0.72076)


By trying manually, i know that the answer is around 0.7224 but what is the formula to calculate that value ? ("Stop Loss", cell F9)

Thanks

 

[jamc]

you need to do a right click , save link as ... to download the file ...

 

[jamc]

got my answer elsewhere. Case closed for me.