Forecasting future daily sales using an array of historical data

[mdeleven]

I have a set of data that tracks sales by day over a period of 8 weeks and I am trying to use Excel to forecast future final numbers for a day (in this case day 5) given that I know what the partial trend for that day looks like.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o> </o>
<TABLE class=MsoNormalTable style="WIDTH: 311.8pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=416 border=0><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 59.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=80>Wks Before<o></o>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 56.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=76>Day 1<o></o>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65>Day 2<o></o>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65>Day 3<o></o>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65>Day 4<o></o>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65>Day 5<o></o>
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 59.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=80 x:num>

8<o></o>​

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12.23<o></o>​

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10.96<o></o>​

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9.76<o></o>​

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9.46<o></o>​

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9.21<o></o>​

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7<o></o>​

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12.52<o></o>​

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11.08<o></o>​

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10.06<o></o>​

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9.79<o></o>​

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9.79<o></o>​

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6<o></o>​

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13.02<o></o>​

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11.35<o></o>​

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10.36<o></o>​

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10.02<o></o>​

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10.26<o></o>​

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5<o></o>​

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13.46<o></o>​

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11.73<o></o>​

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10.86<o></o>​

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10.85<o></o>​

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11.64<o></o>​

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4<o></o>​

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13.84<o></o>​

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12.32<o></o>​

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11.73<o></o>​

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12.48<o></o>​

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11.90<o></o>​

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3<o></o>​

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14.80<o></o>​

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13.22<o></o>​

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12.52<o></o>​

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12.52<o></o>​

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2<o></o>​

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19.88<o></o>​

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14.77<o></o>​

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13.05<o></o>​

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13.27<o></o>​

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1<o></o>​

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21.92<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65 x:num="15.326184995541945">

15.33<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65 x:num="14.850058203644174">

14.85<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65 x:num="14.777043764148001">

14.78<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65> <o></o>
</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 59.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=80>ACTUAL<o></o>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 56.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=76 x:num="21.997488496676603">

22.00<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65 x:num="15.789049863461212">

15.79<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65 x:num="15.033243461479847">

15.03<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65 x:num="15.201479441597696">

15.20<o></o>​

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 48.8pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65> ?????<o></o>
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<o> </o>
In the set of data above I am trying to forecast what my actual number will be (denoted by ?????) for Day 5 given that I have a full set of data for Days 1 – 4. I want to use all of part of the historical information for Days 1 - 4 and also Day 5 in my analyses and I seem to be unable to do this in Excel with regression. The FORECAST or TREND or GROWTH or other expressions also only seem to allow one column of historical data and are quite restrictive. Suggestions would be most helpful. Thank you.<o></o>

 

[NateO]

Hello,

The problem is you're trying to analyze a presetation, not a functional data set. It's hard to do serious calculations on a large, pivoted data set.

It seems to me that you're looking to forecast individual days so do just that, one column at a time.

Your X variable is weeks before and your Y variable (output) is Day X. I'd try regressing that particular relationship and see if it's meaningful.