forecast monthly change of inflation rate

[Zonki]

Hi

I am working on a project to forecast monthly change of inflation rate. I used SLR but the forecast doesnt seem to be correct. Could someone take a look please?

I am also not sure how to diagnose
time series (stationarity, trend, ARMA..) in Excel( is this even possible?)

I hope someone can help.
Thanks!

 

[oldbrewer]

are you using previous monthly rates or looking at events liable to affect inflation ?

 

[Zonki]

I want to make two analyses - first based on previous rates / second based on events
For SLR i used previous rates, the second I dont know how to approach any advice?