Counting probability over a series of rolls

TonyD1016

Board Regular
Joined
Nov 18, 2021
Messages
59
Office Version
  1. 365
Platform
  1. Windows
I'm working on a personal project where I want to compare several dice roll methods by counting the results of a series of rolls.

-In the first instance I want to compare rolling 6 three-sided dice and counting all instances of two's and three's (a 2/3 chance of success per die) , versus flipping a coin 5 times and counting heads (effectively a two-sided die and only counting 2's).
-The second instance I want to compare flipping a coin six times and counting only heads, versus rolling 5 three-sided dice and counting only instances of three's (a 1/3 chance of success per die).

At the moment I have a sheet with nothing but a couple of columns containing a series of =RANDBETWEEN for each method and a =COUNTIF to count the "wins" for each method. This gives me individual results for a single roll, but I am looking to simulate the results over several hundred or thousand attempts.

What are some formulas that can accomplish this?
 

Excel Facts

What is the fastest way to copy a formula?
If A2:A50000 contain data. Enter a formula in B2. Select B2. Double-click the Fill Handle and Excel will shoot the formula down to B50000.
How about using the binomial distribution?
Book1
ABCDEF
1Rolling 3-sided diceFlipping a coin
2Number of Rolls6Number of Flip5
3Probability of success0.667Probability of success0.500
4
5Number of successProbability Number of successProbability
600.00100.031
710.01610.156
820.08220.313
930.21930.313
1040.32940.156
1150.26350.031
1260.088
Sheet1
Cell Formulas
RangeFormula
B3B3=2/3
F3F3=1/2
A6:A12A6=SEQUENCE($B$2+1,1,0,1)
E6:E11E6=SEQUENCE($F$2+1,1,0,1)
F6:F11F6=BINOM.DIST(E6,$F$2,$F$3,FALSE)
B6:B12B6=BINOM.DIST(A6,$B$2,$B$3,FALSE)
Dynamic array formulas.
 
Upvote 0
That will get me the expected results but I am looking for a way to essentially produce actual results.

Basically how can I generate a large list of random numbers and count the wins using the above requirements?
 
Upvote 0
Book2
ABCDEF
1Number of DiceDice SidesRollsSuccessRandom trial % success
263100002,366.773%
35210000249.680%
46210000250.227%
55310000333.440%
6
Sheet1
Cell Formulas
RangeFormula
E2E2=LET(ct, A2*C2,r,RANDARRAY(ct,1,1,B2,1), SUM((r=2)+(r=3))/(ct))
E3:E4E3=LET(ct, A3*C3,r,RANDARRAY(ct,1,1,B3,1), SUM((r=2)+0)/(ct))
E5E5=LET(ct, A5*C5,r,RANDARRAY(ct,1,1,B5,1), SUM((r=3)+0)/(ct))
 
Upvote 0
Solution

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