I remember next to nothing about probabilities from stats class and my use of Excel is mostly limited to financial analysis, so I was hoping to find some help here and maybe provide a fun exercise for anyone with fantasy sports proclivities.
I'm trying to place a value on draft pick rights in my football league. We have a pre-draft lottery selection where everyone gets one lotto ball and when your lotto ball is picked you get to choose your draft slot. Ball rights are tradeable, so for example I can trade my 7th round pick to someone for the rights to their ball, giving me increased odds of being able to choose my preferred draft slot.
Assuming a normal distribution, the average expected lotto order of one ball in a 14-team league is 7.5. What I can't figure out is the conditional probability math and weighting to understand what the average expected lotto order is the more balls you have. I already have individual pick values in place and I want to be able to equate the gap between expected pick values to a certain later-round pick.
For example, if the 7.5 pick is worth 500, the 5.5 pick is worth 550, and the 90 pick is worth 50 I could know that trading the 90 pick for ball rights is break-even if my expected lotto order with 2 balls improves to 5.5 from 7.5. Please ignore the fact that I will not know ahead of time if in fact I will have the 90 pick or some other pick in that round.
Thanks for your help!
I'm trying to place a value on draft pick rights in my football league. We have a pre-draft lottery selection where everyone gets one lotto ball and when your lotto ball is picked you get to choose your draft slot. Ball rights are tradeable, so for example I can trade my 7th round pick to someone for the rights to their ball, giving me increased odds of being able to choose my preferred draft slot.
Assuming a normal distribution, the average expected lotto order of one ball in a 14-team league is 7.5. What I can't figure out is the conditional probability math and weighting to understand what the average expected lotto order is the more balls you have. I already have individual pick values in place and I want to be able to equate the gap between expected pick values to a certain later-round pick.
For example, if the 7.5 pick is worth 500, the 5.5 pick is worth 550, and the 90 pick is worth 50 I could know that trading the 90 pick for ball rights is break-even if my expected lotto order with 2 balls improves to 5.5 from 7.5. Please ignore the fact that I will not know ahead of time if in fact I will have the 90 pick or some other pick in that round.
Thanks for your help!
