Books/Products re: Monte Carlo Simulation

[MikeL]

Hello,
Wanted to have an understanding of using Monte Carlo in Excel. Background: limited understanding of statistics. Any books or guides that can be recommended to a newbie to understand concepts as well as use in Excel?

Thanks,
Mike

 

[Julius]

Hi MikeL,

In the following web page: www.isthmuspartners.ae in the "Publications" tab a UAE based consultancy has uploaded a pdf report titled "Modelling and Simulation - World Cup Simulator" which can be downloaded for free. This report is a practical summary of modelling and simulation using Monte Carlo techniques.

It also details how the tehnique has been used to create a Monte Carlo simulation of the FIFA World Cup. An excel application illustrating this application of Monte Carlo simulation has also been uploaded to the same website and can be downloaded for free. Unfortunately the programmer has protected the VBA code and it cannot be scrutinized, however this demonstrates the power of Monte Carlo simulation, in this case in a fun way.

To get more involved into Monte Carlo simulation, I recommend "Modeling Risk" by Johnathan Mun. This book comes with trial versions of a simulation and optimisation software. What I recommend is that you study first the theory, and that then when you are sure that you are going to have some spare you spend some quality time getting familiar with the software and applying to models that you build.

Cheers