# World Cup Prediction Competition



## barry houdini (Jun 4, 2010)

My "alter ego" daddylonglegs has initiated an exciting World Cup Prediction Competition. See below for details

Just in case he didn't say......it's free......


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## schielrn (Jun 4, 2010)

So I guess I need to become a member at the other site to actually download the spreadsheet? And I know nothing about soccer except that the US will win it this year.


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## barry houdini (Jun 5, 2010)

Hello schielrn,

Sorry, I didn't realise you'd have to join up......you can also access the workbook here

Lack of "soccer" knowledge doesn't debar you from entry.......it didn't prevent Graham Taylor from being England Manager for 3 years.....

If you want to enter then fill in your predicted scores for all 48 matches (the first one is shown as an example - of course you can change it). Also fill in a name and a prediction for the total number of goals in those 48 games.

You get 3 points if you correctly pick a draw, 4 points for a win for the lower ranked team (lower ranks have higher numbers) and 2 points for a win for the favourite. You get 2 extra points for getting the score exactly right.

email the sheet to me at d*dot*addylonglegs*at*virgin*dot*net

I'll produce a sheet with all the predictions so that you can follow your progress.

I'll donate *£50* to a recognised charity of the winners choice - good luck


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## Richard Schollar (Jun 5, 2010)

I always knew you were a closet flower-man barry


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## barry houdini (Jun 5, 2010)

Richard Schollar said:


> I always knew you were a closet flower-man barry


 
That's right, Richard, begonias are my favourites.......


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## barry houdini (Jun 5, 2010)

OK, original link has been removed so here are the (slightly revised) original instructions.....

Hello everybody, it's now less than 7 days until the biggest sporting event on the planet (possibly).

I have devised a fiendishly simple prediction competition, here are 10 reasons why you should enter

1.) It's free
2.) It's simple
3.) As long as at least *15* people enter I'll donate *£50 *to a recognised charity of the winner's choice
4.) You can test your football knowledge against some of the world's top excel experts (and me)
5.) It's free
6.) You can follow your progress and compare against other participants in a no-expense-spared-state-of-the-art excel spreadsheet
7.) It's free
8.) er.......
9.) that's it

*Here's what you do*

Open the spreadsheet here
Fill in your predicted scores for all 48 group games (first one is filled in as an example - of course you can change it).
Fill in a name (the name you want displayed - used an alias if you wish)
Fill in the "tie-breaker" under "Goals (48)" - that's how many goals you think will be scored in those 48 games.
Now save the workbook and email it to me at the following address

barry*dot*houdini*at*virgin*dot*net

replace the red parts with the obvious

*Rules*

Scoring is as follows:

A rank is displayed against every team based on the current world rankings, and converted to a ranking within the 32 world cup qualifiers [the "highest" rank is 1]. If you predict a draw and the result is a draw (any draw) you get 3 points. If you predict a win for the higher ranked team and that team wins (by any score) you get 2 points, if you predict a win for the lower ranked team and that team wins you get 4 points. you get 2 additional points if you get the exact score right.

For example in game 1 South Africa play Mexico and Mexico are higher ranked (14 to 31) so if you predict a 2-1 win for South Africa and they win 2-1 you get 6 points, 4 for predicting a win by the lower placed team, and 2 for the correct score. If you predict 2-1 and the result is 3-1 then you'll just get the 4 points etc......

All scores are added and the highest score after 48 games is the winner. Any ties will be decided by the tie-breaker in favour of the closest guess. If it's still tied then kudos and charity are shared.

Predictions need to be emailed to me by 13:00 BST on Friday 11th June 2010 - that's 2 hours before the kick-off of the first game.

I will be adding my predictions and updating the workbook to show all predictions and adding a table that will update as you enter the scores. Remember, if you don't want to see your name in lights - use an alias

*Advice*

It's meant to be fun - anybody taking it too seriously will be lightly ridiculed

If you don't know anything about football (e.g. Arsenal supporters) don't let that stop you entering - for those of you who *really* know nothing about football, typical top level football games average less than 3 goals a game, so you may not get very far predicting 8-7 scorelines.......

In the last World Cup in Germany in 2006 the 48 group games produced a total of 117 goals (2.4375 per game on average).

Good luck

Any questions please feel free to post here
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## schielrn (Jun 6, 2010)

e-mail sent.    Good luck everyone!


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## barry houdini (Jun 6, 2010)

Hello Schielrn, thank you for your participation and good luck to you - I believe you are the first US entrant, although I have already received entries from New Zealand, England (of course), Canada and (indirectly) South Africa - so it's a truly global contest......

I still want plenty more though, please fell free to enter, even if "soccer" isn't your thing - you have nothing to lose


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## barry houdini (Jun 8, 2010)

Just an update......

I've had a number of entries.......but ideally I want more - if you are undecided whether to enter please take the plunge - it's just for fun......

I know some of you out there have "borrowed" my spreadsheet for your own competitions - please feel free.


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## Hoggle (Jun 9, 2010)

Has anyone let Excel decide on the results by using RANDBETWEEN(0,?)?
I'm thinking perhaps the machine would be better at predicting scores than I am........


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## Domski (Jun 9, 2010)

Hoggle said:


> Has anyone let Excel decide on the results by using RANDBETWEEN(0,?)?
> I'm thinking perhaps the machine would be better at predicting scores than I am........



You're right, it works Book4ABCD1Scotland05EnglandSheet1

Dom


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## PaddyD (Jun 9, 2010)

For the analysts here, JP Morgan's quant approach to the predictions might be interesting:

http://www.e696.com/data/0000002A0518J3.pdf

...and for the wannabe-quants, might prove a painless introduction.  

England are going to win, apparently, which probably explains the recent global financial crisis.


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## xld (Jun 10, 2010)

Domski said:


> You're right, it works
> Dom



When I did that, it knocked out France, Argentine, Netherlands, Germany and Brazil in the group stages. Brazil got 0 points. England got through with Slovenia, which sounds about right.


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## xld (Jun 10, 2010)

PaddyD said:


> For the analysts here, JP Morgan's quant approach to the predictions might be interesting:
> 
> http://www.e696.com/data/0000002A0518J3.pdf
> 
> ...



Is that the same model that they used to calculate the risk on their derivaties?


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## barry houdini (Jun 10, 2010)

Anybody who hasn't entered but still intends to.....you have another 24 hours - I will attempt to post all the predictions back here - if you want you can update the scores and see how you are doing.....

Good Luck


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## Colin Legg (Jun 10, 2010)

xld said:


> Is that the same model that they used to calculate the risk on their derivaties?


Given that it was especially written for the world cup, I'd say that it's a newer, upgraded version.


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## xld (Jun 10, 2010)

Newer, upgraded maybe, but they say in ther paper

• Quant Models are mathematical methods built to efficiently screen and
identify stocks.
• They are based on information and data (analyst upgrades, valuation
metrics etc) proven to help predict stock returns.
• Having developed a rather successful Quant Model over the years, we
intend to introduce it to our readers and also use its methodology to
apply it to a fruitful field for statistics: Football and the World Cup.

That suggests to me that it is their old risk model adapted, and that was a proven success wasn't it.


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## bertie (Jun 10, 2010)

e-mail sent

Scotland is now officialy participating in the World Cup.

Bertie


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## Colin Legg (Jun 10, 2010)

xld said:


> Newer, upgraded maybe, but they say in ther paper
> ...... and that was a proven success wasn't it.


 Yep, I totally agree with you!


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## barry houdini (Jun 10, 2010)

Thanks Bertie, Do you think you have as much chance as "Ally's Army"? [showing my age now]


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## bertie (Jun 10, 2010)

I was at Hampden with 40k others for that send off party. Showing my age!


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## Alphacsulb (Jun 10, 2010)

Im in, sent.


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## barry houdini (Jun 11, 2010)

Thank you Alphacsulb, Good luck!

Anybody else? You have 2 hours to get your entry to me - don't forget Denmark gained entry to Euro 1992 at the last minute......and then won it!


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## barry houdini (Jun 11, 2010)

As promised, the workbook showing all predictions is here

If you want to monitor your progress just enter the match results in the green cells and the scores and table will update automatically.


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## Domski (Jun 12, 2010)

barry houdini said:


> Thank you Alphacsulb, Good luck!
> 
> Anybody else? You have 2 hours to get your entry to me - don't forget Denmark gained entry to Euro 1992 at the last minute......and then won it!



And would my Danish girlfriend at the time let me forget it???


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## barry houdini (Jun 20, 2010)

Quick update for anybody who isn't updating their own scores. 

Bertie is currently top of the table with 5 days and 19 games to go, DominicB is second and Alphacsulb and Brown share 3rd. "daddylonglegs" is loitering dangerously in 5th ready to pounce (or possibly plummet like a stone).

The competition is almost as interesting as Brazil v Ivory Coast (and with no rolling around clutching your forehead after getting kicked below the knee)


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## schielrn (Jun 24, 2010)

Looks like I am now officially out of the runnings.  Good luck to the rest.  But hey I can atleast still root for the US even though they should have had 2 wins and a draw.


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## barry houdini (Jun 25, 2010)

final results are here

Thank you all for taking part. The winner was Gearcutter - I'll be contacting him to find out the charitable destination of the £50 prize

In the end there was only 5 points separating the top 10.

Thank you to everybody who participated. Hope to see you in Brazil in 4 years time.


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## bertie (Jun 25, 2010)

Ah c'mon Gearcutter, seven points in the last two games.

Congratulations!!!

Well that was fun. Good stuff Barry!


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## barry houdini (Jun 30, 2010)

Just to let you know.......<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o> </o>
Gearcutter expressed a preference for a donation to a charity for underprivileged children so I have made a donation of £54.97 (don't ask) to Barnardos. Because they can also claim back tax on that they actually receive £68.71.<o></o>
<o> </o>
Give yourselves a pat on the back for your contribution, thank you.


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## Domski (Jun 30, 2010)

Very generous of you Barry. Cheers for sorting the whole thing out!!!

Dom


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